West Africa’s downstream petroleum sector has demonstrated growing resilience despite mounting global geopolitical tensions, industry experts have said.
This was the consensus at a virtual webinar hosted by the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) in partnership with S&P Global Energy, where stakeholders examined the impact of global disruptions on refined product markets and regional energy security.
Speaking during the session, MEMAN Chairman, Huub Stokman, noted that the ongoing crisis in the Middle East has heightened uncertainty in global oil markets, particularly due to concerns over supply disruptions and critical shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. He explained that these developments have triggered increased volatility in oil prices, higher freight costs, and shifting global supply chains.
According to him, while the situation presents challenges for downstream operators and consumers through rising costs, it also offers a strategic opportunity for West Africa—particularly Nigeria—to position itself as a reliable energy hub given its high-quality crude, expanding refining capacity, and large domestic market.
Providing global market insights, S&P Global Energy’s Associate Editorial Director, Gary Clark, highlighted a sharp rise in margins for refined products such as diesel and jet fuel, driven by supply disruptions and increased risk premiums. He added that logistical constraints, including vessel rerouting, have further tightened supply and increased costs globally.
On regional vulnerabilities, Stanislas Drochon, Africa Head of Fuels and Refining at S&P Global Energy, stressed that Sub-Saharan Africa remains exposed to external shocks due to heavy reliance on imports, limited refining capacity, and inadequate storage infrastructure. He called for sustained investment in supply chain systems to enhance long-term energy security.
In his contribution, energy expert Joe Nwakwue described Nigeria’s ongoing transition to a deregulated downstream market as a period of adjustment marked by price volatility and structural shifts. He emphasized the need for a competitive and well-regulated market supported by policy clarity and diversified supply sources.
Despite these challenges, Stokman maintained that Nigeria remains relatively stable, citing over 30 days of petrol supply coverage and the role of NNPC Limited as supplier of last resort.
The webinar concluded that while Nigeria is better positioned than many of its regional peers, its market remains closely tied to global dynamics. Experts agreed that sustained reforms, infrastructure development, and regulatory consistency will be critical to strengthening resilience and ensuring long-term stability in the sector.
